网络嵌入特征与研发经历对通讯企业预研阶段研发者选择的影响

预研关系到企业在未来行业发展中的竞争优势，但以往相关研究多集中于国防军工企业，对一般民用企业研究较少。从研发者嵌入的网络结构与其自身属性特征两个角度出发，验证通讯企业在3G到4G技术跨越过程中选择预研研发者的影响因素，给出中介中心度、自我中心网结构洞、研发经历3个方面的假设。通过稀有事件logistic回归分析发现，自我中心网中的结构洞个数越多、以往研发技术经历越丰富，研发者越可能被选拔进入企业预研活动。研究结论具有较高的应用价值，可为企业预研中人力资源管理提供决策依据。     

国防产业联盟协同创新网络政府治理：基于语义挖掘技术的策略向度研究

国防产业联盟发展的关键在于科学管理协同创新网络。政策注意力聚焦点反映政府治理创新网络的策略向度，不同政府层级间的注意力分布结构差异表明该策略向度的偏向性。通过人工构建主题词袋，计算主题词TF-IDF权值及余弦相似度，对中央和地方共96份政策文件、1 926份新闻文章进行规模化语义分析，整体评估政府治理国防产业联盟协同创新网络的策略适应性，并测量其在实施与宣传过程中的偏向性。结果发现，网络拓展是首要策略选择，网络管理方式为引导而非参与，关系耦合度低，网络愿景策略运用有限。地方政府在实施过程中出现了策略偏异和策略调整；政策宣传更接近地方政府的策略向度。     

The impact of customer experience on consumer purchase intention in cross-border E-commerce——Taking network structural embeddedness as mediator variable

This study investigates the mediator effect of network structural embeddedness between customer experience and consumer purchase intention in the context of cross-border e-commerce. 321 copies of online questionnaires unfold cross-border online shopping experience. The structural equation model is built to analyze the mediator effect of network structural embeddedness. Network density, Network centrality separately plays a mediating role between website ease of use, website relationship service and consumer purchase intention. In contrast, both of them play a mediating role between customer cost and consumer purchase intention. The research suggests developing the relationship between consumers and e-commerce websites for cross-border e-commerce platforms from a network standpoint, but not only marketing.     

基于K-S检验与距离相关分析的网络借贷信用评价指标体系构建

网络借贷作为一种新型互联网金融模式,提升了金融资源使用效率,缓解了小企业融资难的困局。构建合理的网络借贷信用评价指标体系,从而对网络借贷的潜在风险及时甄别与预防,对互联网金融健康持续发展意义重大。本文根据K-S检验与距离相关分析相结合,筛选对借款客户违约状态甄别能力强的指标,建立了网络借贷信用评价指标体系,通过P2P网络借贷(peer to peer lending,个人对个人借贷)平台LendingClub交易数据进行实证研究,结果表明:不仅借款金额、借款利率等借款标的特征对借贷者违约具有显著相关性,借款者年龄等个人特征、借款者年收入等财务特征以及借款者违约次数等信用特征均对借贷者违约风险产生显著影响。投资者在出借资金时,往往青睐于已婚、年龄适中、具有一定工作经历、历史违约次数较少的借款人。因此,风险监管部门应构建网络借贷违约风险评估模型,对P2P平台进行风险监测,同时建立关键信息共享机制,融合多源数据,明确审查范围,实现P2P网络借贷行业健康有序发展。     

An empirical investigation of water consumption forecasting methods

Many regions on earth face daily limitations in the quantity and quality of the water resources available. As a result, it is necessary to implement reliable methodologies for water consumption forecasting that will enable the better management and planning of water resources. This research analyses, for the first time, a large database containing data from 2 million water meters in 274 unique postal codes, in one of the most densely populated areas of Europe, which faces issues of droughts and overconsumption in the hot summer months. Using the R programming language, we built and tested three alternative forecasting methodologies, employing univariate forecasting techniques including a machine-learning algorithm, with very promising results.     

Predicting bank insolvencies using machine learning techniques

Proactively monitoring and assessing the economic health of financial institutions has always been the cornerstone of supervisory authorities. In this work, we employ a series of modeling techniques to predict bank insolvencies on a sample of US-based financial institutions. Our empirical results indicate that the method of Random Forests (RF) has a superior out-of-sample and out-of-time predictive performance, with Neural Networks also performing almost equally well as RF in out-of-time samples. These conclusions are drawn not only by comparison with broadly used bank failure models, such as Logistic, but also by comparison with other advanced machine learning techniques. Furthermore, our results illustrate that in the CAMELS evaluation framework, metrics related to earnings and capital constitute the factors with higher marginal contribution to the prediction of bank failures. Finally, we assess the generalization of our model by providing a case study to a sample of major European banks.     

平台企业主导的创新生态系统稳定性研究：基于企业间网络关系视角

平台企业主导的创新生态系统作为一种特殊类型生态系统，是由平台主导企业提供基本创新架构并与其它相关企业及关联机构组成的网络组织，企业间网络关系是创新生态系统的本质特征。基于企业间网络关系分析平台企业主导的创新生态系统网络的成员、联系、结构及功能特征,讨论网络结构变量对平台企业主导的创新生态系统稳定性的影响，以山东省30个平台企业主导的创新生态系统为调研样本，通过问卷调查方式，对所提出的假设进行检验。数据相关分析和回归分析结果表明：强有力的创新生态系统主导企业、系统内伙伴企业密度、企业本地化以及企业异质性4个因素对创新生态系统稳定性具有显著正向影响；系统内伙伴企业互惠性和居间性与创新生态系统稳定性之间关系不显著。最后，基于研究结论，提出保持平台企业主导的创新生态系统网络稳定性的政策建议。     

军民融合社会关系网络对军民融合新创企业成长的影响

军民融合新创企业是推动我国国防建设和社会经济融合发展的重要力量，军民融合社会关系网络具有丰富的异质性资源，可以有效促进军民融合新创企业成长。借鉴社会网络理论，构建以关系深度、关系广度、关系高度为代表的军民融合社会关系网络、耦合共生与军民融合新创企业成长理论模型，通过对收集的304份军民融合新创企业问卷数据进行实证分析，结果发现：军民融合社会关系网络对军民融合新创企业成长具有正向影响；耦合共生在军民融合社会关系网络与军民融合新创企业成长间发挥中介作用；创业导向显著调节耦合共生与军民融合新创企业成长的关系。     

创新网络领域知识主题研究述评

在知识经济时代，创新网络在企业创新中扮演着重要角色，而研究网络中知识要素的产生、传播、吸收等问题对了解企业网络化创新具有重要意义。基于国内外核心文献数据库，收集创新网络领域知识要素相关文献，并结合文献计量分析方法，对该领域近30年有关知识主题研究的演化规律、整体趋势等进行梳理。结果表明，国内外研究年度发文量均呈现3个阶段变化趋势，且分别拥有各自重要载文期刊，国内研究已形成核心团队，而国外并未形成；国内外研究既有相同之处，也存在差异性，且均形成较为清晰的研究框架；在演化规律上，国内横向拓展和纵向深化研究特征显著，而国外更加注重纵向深入探索分析，研究内容也更加分散；在未来前沿热点分析上，中外学者关注内容既有相同点，也有不同点，知识协同、知识惯例、企业数字化转型对知识影响的研究是未来关注重点。     

How to inhibit a partner's strong and weak forms of opportunism: Impacts of network embeddedness and bilateral TSIs

This study investigates the moderating effects of a firm's network embeddedness and a partner's transactional specific investments (TSIs) on relationships between the firm's TSIs and its partner's strong- and weak-form opportunism, and compares the efficiency among these moderator variables. The regression results suggest that (1) a firm's TSIs are positively related to partner's opportunism when network embeddedness and the partner's TSIs are relatively low; but (2) a firm's TSIs are negatively related to partner's opportunism when network embeddedness and the partner's TSIs are relatively high. Furthermore (3) network embeddedness is more effective in inhibiting partner's weak-form opportunism than in inhibiting strong-form opportunism resulting from the firm's TSIs. Finally (4) with regard to the relationship between TSIs and weak-form opportunism, the negative moderating effect of network embeddedness is greater than the negative moderating effect of partner's TSIs. This study explains reasons why conflicting views exist about the relationship between TSIs and partner's opportunism, reveals the differences in the moderating effects of network embeddedness and partner's TSIs, and makes new contributions to both transaction cost theory and embeddedness literature. It also provides, for firms involved in TSIs in a buyer–supplier relationship, insightful managerial suggestions about ways to reduce their partner's varying forms of opportunism.